Lebanon: From Proxy War to Prosperity

Time for Peace with Israel

After decades of war, corruption, and foreign interference, Lebanon stands at a crossroads. With Hezbollah weakened and Iran in retreat, peace with Israel is no longer unthinkable. It is essential. This is a case for a new Lebanese future rooted in sovereignty, prosperity, and peace.

For a country once called the "Switzerland of the Middle East," Lebanon has spent far too long at war, and not just with itself. Its ongoing state of conflict with Israel, while loudly voiced by Hezbollah and their Iranian backers, lacks any true historical or strategic justification. Lebanon has no real border disputes with Israel, as their only grievances were tied to popular sympathies with the Palestinian cause and which were subject to foreign agendas.

From a broader perspective, Lebanon’s decline over the past 50 years stems not from its perceived conflict with Israel, but from its deeply flawed sectarian system of governance that has been subject to shifting global alliances and proxy conflicts dictated by foreign powers.

The opportunity to break free has never been more real, and more urgent.

A Pluralistic Republic with a Fragile Identity - A Historical Perspective

Lebanon was born from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the subsequent reshaping of the Middle East by colonial powers. Following independence from the French Mandate in 1943, Lebanon evolved into a unique republic in the Arab world. The country’s pluralistic society adopted the National Pact, an unwritten sectarian power-sharing agreement that laid the foundation of the country as a multiconfessional state, assigning key political positions to specific religious communities. The system mandated the president to be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.

While designed to preserve balance, this system produced decades of institutional paralysis, political gridlock, elite corruption and disunity. The political schism was further exacerbated by the various religious sects aligning themselves, both politically and militarily, with different foreign powers to safeguard their interests. The Maronite Christians maintained close ties to France and the West; Sunnis often aligned with pan-Arab causes, particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia; and the historically marginalized Shiite community gradually found ideological alignment and political support from the Islamic regime in Iran. During the civil war, factions of the Maronites, notably the Phalangists, engaged in tactical alliances with Israel. Other minority groups, who were not part of the ruling hierarchy, included the Druze and Greek Orthodox among others. These fringe goups contributed to Lebanon’s rich but fragile mosaic.

Unfortunately, Lebanon's diversity proved to be a double-edged sword where its greatest cultural strength turned into its deepest political vulnerability.

The Palestinian Crisis and the Civil War

Lebanon's sectarian equilibrium began to unravel with the flood of refugees following the creation of Israel in the aftermath of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The transfer of refugees intensified in the aftermath of the 1970 PLO revolt in Jordan, which triggered mass expulsions of Palestinians from that country to Lebanon. The migration from Jordan followed the Cairo Agreement of 1969, which granted the PLO the right to operate in southern Lebanon and exercise autonomous control within the refugee camps, thereby effectively creating a “state within a state.”

The PLO's growing influence destabilized Lebanon’s delicate balance. Its use of Lebanese territory to launch attacks against Israel provoked repeated Israeli reprisals. These cross-border operations marked the beginning of Lebanon’s direct entanglement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

By 1975, internal tensions exploded into a brutal 15-year civil war. Syria, Israel, and various Lebanese factions became deeply involved. Even French and American peacekeepers were drawn in. Their presence ended abruptly after the 1983 bombings of the French and American Embassies and the Marine barracks in Beirut.

Beirut was divided into two parts, with the Christians in the East, Shiite and Muslim factions in the West. Once hailed as the “Paris of the Middle East,” the capital became a war zone. The result was mass displacement, infrastructure collapse, and the breakdown of Lebanese society.

Israeli Interventions and the Removal of the PLO

Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982. The latter operation, dubbed “Peace for Galilee”, sought to expel the PLO from Israel’s northern border. Though the operation achieved its strategic objective of relocating the PLO leadership to Tunisia, it sparked global controversy. The Sabra and Shatila massacre, carried out by Lebanese Phalangists in a Palestinian refugee camp, all while Israeli forces stood nearby, drew widespread condemnation and placed Israel under intense international scrutiny.

Nonetheless, the removal of the PLO ended a key destabilizing force that had transformed Lebanon into a launching pad for regional proxy warfare. But the vacuum left behind was quickly filled by a more entrenched and ideologically driven force.

Hezbollah: Iran's Proxy, Not Lebanon's Voice

Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah was not a product of Lebanese nationalism but of Shiite Islamist ideology. The paramilitary group became the focal point of a larger strategy by Tehran to encircle Israel with proxy armies, and to project Iranian influence throughout the Arab world. Hezbollah’s loyalty has never been to Lebanon, but to the Islamic Regime in Iran. Their effective control over the Lebanese body-politic turned Lebanon into a vassal state, indirectly controlled by Tehran.

Over time, Hezbollah entrenched itself within Lebanon’s political, military, and social fabric. It constructed a parallel state, providing a slew of social services, enforcing security in its strongholds, and dominating political life through a calculated blend of militancy and subterfuge, cloaked in populist rhetoric.

Despite repeated UN resolutions calling for the withdrawal of foreign forces and the disarmament of all militias, Hezbollah retained its arsenal under the pretext of resisting Israeli occupation. In reality, its weapons were not intended to defend Lebanon or support its national army, but rather to shield Iran from Israeli attack and to advance Tehran’s regional hegemonic ambitions.

Ironically, neither objective was ultimately achieved. When Hezbollah was attacked and decisively weakened by Israel’s 2024 campaign, Iran failed to intervene. When war broke out between Israel and Iran last month, the militia refused to get involved. The failure of both sides to come to the other’s rescue exposed the limits of their alliance and the stark failure of the Islamic regime’s overall proxy strategy.

A Nation Held Hostage

In recent years, Lebanon has collapsed under the weight of corruption, mismanagement, and Hezbollah’s domination. The economy has imploded. The Lebanese pound has lost over 90% of its value. Youth emigration has surged. As a final blow to an already shattered system, the 2020 Beirut port explosion exposed the full extent of state dysfunction and highlighted Hezbollah's gross negligence and disregard for responsible governance.

In the aftermath, the Lebanese government collapsed, leaving behind a weak and ineffective caretaker administration, not even capable of agreeing on a new president.

The Waning Power of Hezbollah

By 2023, Lebanon’s once-vibrant middle class had vanished, the economy was in shambles, and sectarian divisions had deepened. Yet Hezbollah’s provocations, ostensibly in support of Hamas and the Palestinian cause, further endangered Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, one day after Hamas’ brutal and genocidal attack on southern Israel, Hezbollah began daily rocket and missile attacks from Lebanese soil.

In September 2024, a combination of covert operations involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, and targeted Israeli strikes dismantled key parts of Hezbollah’s missile network and killed senior leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. His death marked a turning point, not just for Hezbollah, but for Lebanon, Israel, and Iran. The door opened for Lebanon to reclaim its sovereignty and begin the process towards national renewal.

A Conflict Without a Cause

Lebanon and Israel share no substantive territorial disputes. The main border issue involving Shebaa Farms, which is often cited by Hezbollah, is largely symbolic. The UN recognizes the area as Syrian territory occupied by Israel since 1967. It is a matter more appropriately resolved between Syria and Israel, perhaps as part of a future peace agreement.

Realistically, Lebanon has no reason to remain in conflict with Israel. The border could be secured quickly with UN supervision backing a revived Lebanese Armed Forces and a dismantled Hezbollah militia. Water and energy disputes have been managed through US-brokered maritime agreements, enabling both nations to pursue offshore gas exploration peacefully.

Peace as a National Revival Strategy

Making peace with Israel is no longer taboo. It is increasingly seen as a path to national survival and prosperity. For Lebanon, the benefits are not merely symbolic; they are concrete and transformative. The Lebanese Army is gradually taking control of southern Lebanon, empowering the Lebanese Government to reestablish control over its own sovereignty. Pressure is mounting to dissolve Hezbollah's military wing, especially after Iran’s defeat in the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

Lebanon holds vast potential in economic development, energy, technology, and regional trade. Peace would unlock enormous opportunity, from gas exports to Europe, to participation in future trade corridors akin to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). While Lebanon is not currently a member of IMEC, regional realignments could create similar opportunities involving Iraq and Syria.

Some key sectors that could benefit from Israeli cooperation include:

· Agriculture: Lebanon’s fertile Bekaa Valley could flourish with Israeli agtech and irrigation expertise.

· Tourism: Both countries offer Mediterranean and biblical tourism assets. Joint travel programs could spur regional tourism.

· Technology: Lebanon’s educated diaspora and growing startup culture could connect with Israel’s tech ecosystem to create Lebanese innovation hubs.

· Energy: Lebanon’s offshore drilling potential could integrate with Israel’s energy export infrastructure to reach European markets.

Looking Ahead toward a New Middle East

If the rumored rapprochement between Syria and Israel leads to peace, Lebanon may follow. Such a breakthrough could usher in a geopolitical transformation across the Levant not seen since the end of the Ottoman Empire, a pivot from war to peace, from division to cooperation.

Lebanon's destiny is not to be a battlefield. It is to be a bridge between cultures, economies, and civilizations. But that future requires courage to abandon inherited hatred, to expel foreign domination, and to choose peace over endless, unnecessary, and artificially sustained wars.

Calling for peace with Israel is not surrender. It is a restoration of Lebanese sovereignty, heritage, and self-respect. It is the key to building a nation that once again stands as a beacon of progress, pluralism, and prosperity in the Middle East.

However, if Lebanon is to rise again, it must first choose peace.